Abstract: US shale oil and gas development model has become the successful pattern for global unconventional oil and gas development and been brought under wide imitation. According to the analysis, a number of factors hold the key to its success, such as “horizontal well + volume fracturing” technology to improve the single-well production, continual cost-effectiveness by means of technological and managerial innovation, and raising fund at low cost. However, there are some bottlenecks in sale oil development, such as continuous high investment, high cost and rapid declining of the single-well production, and low production factor. Those are the critical problems which caused the difficulties for US shale oil production business under low oil prices. The low-grade and unconventional resources will be dominant in China’s newly proven reserves in the future and come under development in an unconventional way. Therefore, China will face the same bottlenecks as what the United States has faced in its shale oil development. It is proposed that China should accelerate reform of its exploration system and mechanism and encourage the efforts for expansion of exploration into the new basins and deepwater areas through the preferential policies, making preparations for substantial strategic replacement. Meanwhile, the oil companies should focus the efforts on the new zones and new fields in the key basins to bring about significant growth in oil production and reserves.

摘要： 美国页岩油气开发模式成为全球非常规油气资源开发的成功样本并被广为模仿。分析认为，“水平井+体积压裂”提高单井产量技术、技术和管理创新持续降低成本、低成本融资等是其成功关键。但持续高投入、较高成本及单井产量递减快、采收率低，是页岩油开发难以解决的瓶颈问题，也是造成低油价下美国页岩油生产经营困难的关键问题。我国新探明储量今后将以低品位和非常规资源为主，主要采用非常规方式开发，面临与美国页岩油开发同样甚至更棘手的问题。建议国家加快勘探体制机制改革，通过政策引导，鼓励拓展新盆地和远海深水等领域，准备真正意义上的战略接替，石油公司则着重开拓重点盆地内的新区、新领域，实现石油储产量的规模增长。

关键词: 页岩油, 致密油, 非常规开发, 高效勘探, 战略接替