The perspective of China’s oil and gas in the Energy Transition

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2021.05.004

Abstract

Abstract: To discuss the status of China’s oil and gas in the energy structure during the energy transition under the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”, firstly its development trend in recent years is analyzed. Judging from the changes in reserves in the past 10 years, the newly added petroleum geological reserves and economically recoverable reserves have a tendency to become smaller. This has led to a reserve replacement factor of less than 1 for many years, which in turn caused annual oil production to decline to less than 200 million tons from 2015. Further analysis of the undeveloped rate of reserves reveals that about 10%-12% of the economically recoverable reserves on the reserve table are actually unrecoverable under current conditions. Correspondingly, the true reserve-to-production ratio has also fallen below the stable production threshold of 10. China’s natural gas is still on the first half of the growth curve, and the growth trend is becoming gentle, the problem that some economically recoverable reserves are actually unrecoverable still exists. In short, the research on the status of oil and gas shows that if the strategic is not achieved in time to increase the proven recoverable reserves, in the near and mid-term future, China’s oil production, and then natural gas production will not be stable, or even possibly decline rapidly. Based on the energy demands and its composition forecasts under the constraints of carbon emission reduction, the authors analyze the demand of oil and gas at the middle of this century. Being the best partner of non-fossil energy natural gas plays a transitional and bridge role in the energy transition. In order to meet this demand, it is necessary to strengthen oil and gas exploration and launch the third strategic shift to open up new areas and new realms.

Key words: energy transition, energy consumption composition, energy demand forecast, oil and gas economically recoverable reserves, production

摘要： “碳达峰、碳中和”目标下，探讨我国能源转型中油气在能源结构中的地位，首先要分析其近年发展趋势。近10年，我国新增石油地质储量和经济可采储量呈变小趋势，导致储量替换率多年小于1；2015—2017年石油年产量呈降势，目前仍低于2×10⁸t。深入分析储量未开发率发现，经济可采储量约10%~12%在现有条件下不可采，真实储产比已降到稳产阈值10以下。目前，我国天然气虽处于增长曲线平台期前半部，增势趋于平缓，但也存在部分经济可采储量实际不可采的问题。如果不及时实现产区/领域的战略性接替，使探明可采储量有明显提高，我国未来近中期有可能出现先石油、后天然气不能稳产，甚至较快速下降的风险。依据“双碳”指标约束下能源需求及其构成预测成果，分析到21世纪中期的油气需求数量及其在能源构成中占比。天然气在能源转型中起过渡和桥梁作用，是非化石能源的最佳伙伴。为此，必须加强油气勘探，对新区新领域实施第三次战略展开。

关键词: 能源转型, 能源消费构成, 能源需求预测, 石油天然气, 经济可采储量, 产量

CLC Number:

Zhang Kang, Zhang Liqin. The perspective of China’s oil and gas in the Energy Transition[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2021, 40(5): 22-33.

张抗　张立勤. 能源转型中的中国油气[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2021, 40(5): 22-33.

References

[1]　能源转型与能源安全课题组. 中国能源转型:走向碳中和[M]. 北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2021:1-233. Research group of transformation of energy and energy security. Energy transformation in China : Toward carbon neutrality[M]. Beijing : Social Science Literature Publishing House, 2021:1-233.
[2]　贺玉擎. 碳中和目标背景下政策性金融更好服务绿色转型的路径研究[J]. 海外投资与出口信贷,2021(3):43-48. He Yuqing. Research on the path of policy finance to service for green transformation under the background of carbon neutralization goal[J]. Overseas Investment & Export Credits, 2021(3):43-48.
[3]　徐东. 天然气在能源转型中发展空间广阔[N].中国石油报,2021-03-30(5). Xu Dong. Natural gas has broad perspective in the energy transition[N]. China Petroleum Daily, 2021-03-30(5).
[4]　查全衡. 国内外油气资源分类沿革及其启示[J]. 石油科技论坛,2020,39(4):7-15 . Zha Quanheng. Evolution and enlightenment of domestic and foreign oil and gas resources classification[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2020,39(4):7-15 .
[5]　张抗,白振瑞. 我国石油储量形势分析其增储对策[J]. 石油科技论坛,2017,36(2):41-48. Zhang Kang, Bai Zhengrui. Analysis of our country’s oil reserves situation and countermeasures to increase reserves[J]. Oil Forum, 2017,36(2):41-48.
[6]　张抗,张立勤. 深化油气勘探开发一体化中的储量工作[J]. 石油科技论坛,2021,40(2):16-22. Zhang Kang, Zhang Liqin. Enhance research on reserves in oil and gas exploration and development integration[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2021,40(2):16-22.
[7]　庞无忌.我国10年新增石油资源量逾百亿吨[N].中国能源报,2021-03-01(13). Pang Wuji. Our country’s newly added oil resources in the past 10 years exceed 10 billion tons [N]. China Energy News, 2021-03-01(13).
[8]　张抗,罗云峰.从剩余产能看新世纪石油供需形势[J].中外能源,2014,19(4):1-5. Zhang Kang, Luo Yunfeng. A Look at the world’s oil supply and demand picture from spare capacity perspective[J]. Sino-Global Energy, 2014,19(4):1-5.
[9]　张抗,门向勇.中国未开发石油储量的分析和对策[J].中国石油勘探,2014,19(5):23-31. Zhang Kang, Men Xiangyong.Analysis and strategy of China’s undeveloped oil reserves[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2014,19(5):23-31.
[10] 张抗,李铁军.中国未开发天然气储量的分析和对策[J].天然气地球科学,2015,26(2):119-207. Zhang Kang, Li Tiejun. Analysis and strategy of undeveloped natural gas in China[J]. Natural Gas Geoscience, 2015,26(2): 119-207.
[11] 闫建文.让难动用储量高效动起来:中国石油开发领域技术进步观察[N].中国石油报,2021-02-24(4). Yan Jianwen.Let the difficult-to-use reserves move efficiently: Observation of technological progress in China’s petroleum development[N]. China Petroleum Daily, 2021-02-24(4).
[12] 王维东,任文盼.未动用储量高效动用的样板[N].中国石化报,2021-03-22(6). Wang Weidong, Ren Wenpan. A model for efficient utilization of unused reserves[N]. China Petrochemical News, 2021-03-22(6).
[13] 张抗,焦杨.深化勘探开发一体化为开发提供有效储量[J].中国石油勘探,2018,23(2):76-82. Zhang Kang, Jiao Yang. Deepening the exploration-development integration to provide effective reserves for development[J]. China Petroleum Exploration,2018,23(2):76-82.
[14] 张抗,张立勤.低油价的分析和对策[J].中外能源,2020,25(5):1-11. Zhang Kang, Zhang Liqin. Analysis and countermeasures against low oil price [J]. Sino-Global Energy, 25(5):1-11.
[15] 张抗.中国油气产区战略接替形势与展望[J].石油勘探与开发,2012,39(5):513-523. Zhang Kang.Strategic replacement situation and outlook of China oil-gas production area[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012,39(5):513-523.
[16] 张抗,张立勤.21世纪初中国原油储量、产量构成变化分析及启示[J].中国石油勘探,2019,24(3):280-296. Zhang Kang, Zhang Liqin, The analysis on the composition changes of China’s crude oil reserves and production in early 21th century and its enlightenment[J]. China Petroleum Exploration,2019,24(3):280-296.
[17] 张抗,卢泉杰.中外近期油气储产比变化态势及其意义[J].中国石油勘探,2014,20(5):17-23. Zhang Kang, Lu Quanjie. Analysis of recent changes in Chinese and foreign oil and gas reserve and production ratio[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2014, 20 (5) :17-23.
[18] 张抗,周总瑛,周庆凡.中国石油天然气发展战略[M].北京:地质出版社,石油工业出版社,中国石化出版社,2002:281－290. Zhang Kang, Zhou Zongying, Zhou Qingfan. China oil and gas development strategy[M].Beijing: Geological Publishing House, Petroleum Industry Press, China Petrochemical Press, 2002:281-290.
[19] 宋新民,曲德斌,邹存友.低油价常态下中国油田开发低成本战略[J].石油勘探与开发,2021,48(4):869-878. Song Xinmin, Qu Debin, Zou Cunyou. Low cost development strategy for oilfields in China under low oil prices[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development,2012,39(5):869-878.
[20] 杜金虎,胡素云,庞正炼,等. 中国陆相页岩油类型、潜力及前景[J].中国石油勘探,2019,24(5):560-568. Du Jinhu, Hu Suyun, Pang Zhenglian, et al. The types, potentials and prospects of continental shale oil in China[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019, 24(5): 560-568.
[21] 杨国丰,周庆凡,卢雪梅. 页岩油勘探开发成本研究[J].中国石油勘探,2019,24(5):576-588. Yang Guofeng, Zhou Qingfan, Lu Xuemei. Study on the cost of shale oil exploration and development[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019, 24(5): 576-588.
[22] 郭焦锋,王婕,孟凡达. 对标国际一流,切实推进中国页岩油上游产业高质量发展[J].中国石油勘探,2019,24(5): 547-552. Guo Jiaofeng, Wang Jie, Meng Fanda. Promoting the high-quality development of China’s shale oil upstream industry by following international first-class standard[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019, 24(5): 547-552.
[23] 高屾,闫建文.勇担责任使命推进页岩油加快发展[N].中国石油报,2021-02-25(1). Gao Shen, Yan Jianwen. Bravely assuming responsibility and mission to accelerate the development of shale oil [N]. China Petroleum Daily,2021-02-25(1).
[24] 匡立春,侯连华,杨智,等.陆相页岩油储层评价关键参数及方法[J].石油学报,2021,42(1):1-14. Kuang Lichun, Hou Lianhua,Yang Zhi, et al. Key parameters and methods of lacustrine shale oil reservoir characterization[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica,2021,42(1):1-14.
[25] 高芸,蒋雪梅,赵国洪,等. 2020年中国天然气发展述评及2021年展望[J].天然气技术与经济,2021,15 (1):1-11. Gao Yun, Jiang Xuemei, Zhao Guohong, et al.China natural gas development:Review 2020 and outlook 2021[J]. Natural Gas Technology and Economy,2021,15(1):1-11.
[26] 马睿.美国页岩油产量反弹是否动力不再？[N].中国石油报,2021-03-23(5). Ma Rui. Does the U.S. shale oil production rebound no longer have any momentum? [N]. China Petroleum Daily, 2021-03-23(5).
[27] 张抗,白振瑞.中国煤层气现状及对策探讨[J].中国石油勘探,2015,20(5):73-80. Zhang Kang, Bai Zhenrui.The status of China’s coalbed methane and countermeasure discussion [J]. China Petroleum Exploration,2015,20(5):73-80.
[28] 张遂安,刘欣佳,温庆志,等.煤层气增产改造技术发展现状与趋势[J].石油学报,2021,42(1):105-118. Zhang Sui’an, Liu Xinjia,Wen Qingzhi, et al. Development situation and trend of stimulation and reforming technology of coalbed methane[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica,2021,42(1):105-118.
[29] 何建坤. 中国低碳发展与转型路径研究成果介绍[EB/OL]. (2020-10-14)[2021-08-16]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4-EJfwl6F3a94Yu4O96_Jw. He Jiangkun. Introduction to the research results of China’s low-carbon development and transformation path[EB/OL]. (2020-10-14)[2021-08-16]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4-EJfwl6F3a94Yu4O96_Jw.
[30] 发改委能源研究所. 2050年中国非化石能源比重有望达到78% [EB/OL]. (2021-01-29)[2021-08-16]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CfEKSEkZrHv8N_3SEQMMMg. Energy Research Institute of Development and Reform Commission. China’s non-fossil energy share is expected to reach 78% by 2050[EB/OL]. (2021-01-29)[2021-08-16]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CfEKSEkZrHv8N_3SEQMMMg.
[31] 侯明扬. 能源转型推动近中期天然气需求预期增长[N]. 中国石油报,2021-02-09(6). Hou Mingyang. Energy transition promotes the expected growth of natural gas demand in the near and medium term[N]. China Petroleum Daily,,2021-02-09(6).
[32] 乔德武,任收麦,邱海峻,等. 中国油气资源勘探现状与战略选区[J]. 地质通报,2011,30(2):187-196. Qiao Dewu, Ren Shoumai, Qiu Haijun, et al. The present situation of oil & gas resources exploration and strategic selection of potential area in China[J]. Geological Bulletin of China,2011,30(2):187-196.
[33] 邹才能,熊波,薛华庆,等. 新能源在碳中和中的地位与作用[J].石油勘探与开发,2021,48(2):411-420. Zou Caineng, Xiong Bo, Xue Huaqing, et al. The role of new energy in carbon neutral[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development,2021,48(2):411-420.