Abstract: China’s coal-to-olefin industry has been under rapid development in recent years. As of the end of 2018, the coal-to-olefin productivity (including methanol to olefin) totaled 1302×104t/a, occupying 21 percent of China’s total oflin productivity (ethylene + propylene). Currently, the coal-to-olefin project calls for high investment. It has a certain profit-making space when the crude oil prices are at high and medium levels, but the products are of serious homogeneity and low ends. The imbalance in distribution of coal and water resources is one of the main bottlenecks for coal-to-olefin development. The CO2 discharge from the production process is relatively high. The future development will face the issues of carbon taxes and cost. China sees a rapid growth in coal-to-olefin productivity, which is positively supplementary to petrochemical products to some extent. However, it also exerts more and more impact on the oil-to-olefin market. This competitive relations will be more obvious during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The petrochemical enterprises should take advantage of the oil refining-chemical integration and petrochemical-chemical industrial chain to reduce the olefin production cost, accelerate transformation of oil refining to chemical industry, continue to optimize product structure, strength technological innovation, develop differential, high-end and high value-added products, continually enrich the current product structure and industrial chain, and further improve their own competitiveness.

摘要： 近年来我国煤制烯烃快速发展，截至2018年底，煤制烯烃（包括甲醇制烯烃）总产能达到1302×104t/a，占我国烯烃（乙烯+丙烯）总产能的21%。煤制烯烃项目投资高，中高位原油价格下具有一定盈利空间，产品同质化、低端化现象比较严重，煤、水资源分布不平衡是制约其发展的主要问题，生产过程CO2排放量较大，未来发展面临碳税及成本问题。我国煤制烯烃产能快速增长，在一定程度上是对石油化工产品的有益补充，但也对石油烯烃市场带来越来越大的冲击和影响，这种竞争关系将在“十四五”期间表现得更为明显。石化企业应发挥炼化一体化优势和石化化工产业链优势，降低烯烃生产成本，加快炼油向化工转型步伐，持续优化产品结构，强化技术创新，开发差异化、高端化、高附加值化工产品，不断丰富现有产品结构与产业链，进一步提升自身竞争力。

关键词: 煤制烯烃, 产业发展, 产能增长, 市场冲击, 石化企业, 发展方向