Abstract: IEA, EIA, OPEC and ERI RAS as well as oil companies like BP and ExxonMobil have long been engaged in the research work of energy statistical and perspective analysis, which is of great influence. This article summarizes and analyzes the latest energy outlook reports of those energy organs and companies while comparing the different points presented in those reports and making elaboration of the oil and gas industrial development trend prior to 2030. This research includes that the economic and social development will continue to fuel global energy demand growth with more cleaner energy used at a higher efficiency. Oil market demand and supply are generally kept at stable while international oil price may be bounced from a low level. Natural gas development enters into its golden era. China’s energy consumption growth will slow down with gradual optimization of the structure. The United States, Russia and other countries will adjust their energy policies while diversification of energy imports becomes more apparent in consuming countries. The Chinese oil companies should adapt themselves to the development trend and firmly commit themselves to development of oil and gas businesses, drawing up a natural gas business development strategy on the basis of international visions. It is also necessary for the Chinese oil companies to accelerate innovation of technological and commercial patterns, take advantage of the market opportunities for low-carbon new energy business, study and release the energy industrial development trends, and improve their industrial influential power.

摘要： 国际能源署（IEA）、美国能源信息署（EIA）、石油输出国组织（OPEC）、俄罗斯科学院能源研究所（ERI RAS）等机构和英国石油公司（BP）、埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）等石油公司均长期从事能源统计与展望分析研究工 作，具有较高的影响力。对上述能源机构和石油公司最新的能源展望报告进行总结分析，对比了不同报告的异同点， 归纳梳理了2030 年前油气行业发展趋势。研究总结得出：经济社会发展将继续推动全球能源需求增长，能源利用将更 加清洁高效；石油市场供需总体相对宽松，国际油价低位回升企稳；天然气发展进入黄金时代；中国能源消费增速放缓， 结构逐步优化；美、俄等国调整能源政策，消费国能源进口多元化更加明显。中国石油公司需要顺应趋势，坚定不移 发展油气主业，抓紧制定基于国际化视野的天然气业务发展战略；加快技术和商业模式创新，把握低碳新能源业务市 场机遇；加强研究并发布能源行业发展趋势，提升行业影响力和话语权。

关键词: 能源展望, 油气行业, 市场趋势, 能源政策