Abstract: To establish the clean, low-carbon, safe and high-efficiency modern energy system, acceleration of replaceable energy development is an inevitable option for adjustment and optimization of energy structure. This will exert an important influence on traditional oil-characterized energy development. China has seen a rapid replaceable energy development and ranked on the world’s forefront and even No.1 position in terms of total development volume, newly-added capacity, newly additional investment and proportion of consumption. This article follows up a series of studies of non-conventional oil and gas exploration and production technology, building energy-saving and environmental technology, energy-storing technology, mini nuclear cracking technology and energy Internet + latest technological progress. It also looks into the longterm and medium-term development trends for key frontier technologies of replaceable energy both at home and abroad and quantitatively calculates the replacement rates of the main varieties for oil in 2020, 2030 and 2050. It is proposed that China’s oil enterprises should actively adjust their development strategy on the basis of energy revolution, optimize business blocks and distribution, enhance their innovation capacity, establish the “Internet + energy” development framework, take an active part in international energy cooperation and bring about sustainable development on the basis of higher quality and performance.

摘要： 为建设清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系，加快替代能源发展成为能源结构调整优化的必然选择，这 将对以石油为代表的传统能源发展产生重要影响。近年来，我国替代能源发展迅速，开发总量、新增容量、新增投资、 消费占比等多个指标位居世界前列甚至第一。该报告跟踪研究了非常规油气勘探开采技术、建筑节能环保技术、储能 技术、小型核裂变技术、能源互联网+ 技术的最新进展，研判展望了国内外替代能源关键前沿技术中长期发展趋势， 具体分析了车用燃气、新能源汽车、生物质燃料、煤基液体燃料等替代能源的发展阶段以及对石油需求的影响，并定 量测算了这些主要品种在2020 年、2030 年、2050 年对石油的替代率。建议我国石油企业应围绕能源革命积极调整公 司发展战略，优化业务板块和布局，增强创新能力，构建“互联网+ 能源”发展框架，积极参与国际能源合作，以实 现公司提质增效和可持续发展。

关键词: 替代能源, 前沿技术, 非常规油气, 建筑节能, 储能, 核能, 能源互联网+, 新能源汽车, 生物质燃料, 煤基液体燃料, 石油需求