Abstract: International oil prices are still fluctuating at a low level. This paper analyzes the new trend of international oil and gas industry as well as the driving factors behind this trend. The market depression leads to higher requirements on identification of the risks for development of new overseas oil and gas projects. It also makes quantitative risk analysis and evaluation of the countries where China’s big-three oil companies were engaged in 40 overseas oil and gas projects in 2015. Of those, the countries with high risks accounted for 22.5 percent while the countries with comparatively high, medium and low risks made up for 17.5 percent, 10 percent and 50 percent respectively. Taking into account global oil and gas resources distribution characteristics and investment risks, this paper comes up with the orientation for expansion of overseas oil and gas projects, proposing to maintain the energy-supplying bases in Central Asia, enter the high-end market presence in the Middle East, establish the win-win onshore and offshore production bases in Africa, make active involvement in non-conventional energy development in Americas and strive to construct the natural gas supplying bases in the Asia-Pacific.

摘要： 国际原油价格持续走低，探析了国际油气行业的新动向以及动向背后的驱动因素。不景气的市场对海外 油气新项目拓展风险识别提出了更高要求。对我国三大石油公司2015 年40 个海外油气项目所在国家进行了定量风险 分析评价，其中高国家风险的占22.5%，较高风险、中度风险、低风险分别占比17.5%、10%、50%。基于对全球油气 资源分布特点和投资风险的考量，提出海外油气项目拓展方向，建议稳定最现实的中亚能源供应基地，挺进中东高端 市场，形成非洲海陆共赢生产基地，积极介入美洲非常规能源开发，力争建成亚太天然气供应基地。

关键词: 海外油气项目, 国际原油价格, 国家风险, 风险分散, 多元化油气供应炼化企业, 市场低迷, 开源节流, 降本增效, 技术创新, 工艺流程优化