Analysis of China’s Oil Reserves Situation and Plans for Additional Reserves

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2017.02.08

Abstract

Abstract: Newly-added proven oil reserve is a general conception that may cause different interpretations or misunderstanding. This article makes elaboration of this conception. It analyzes the economically recoverable reserves in China’s incremental original oil in place (OOIP) proven in recent years, the decline of reserve grade reflected by changes in recovery factor, low producing degree of the proven economically recoverable reserves, and the declining remaining recoverable reserves and reserve-to-production ratio. The article points out that China faces a sterner situation for oil reserves than decline of oil production in 2016. It is noticed that China still had a large amount of economically recoverable reserves remaining non-producing even if the annual average oil price was $110 per barrel. The article also makes analysis of the upstream difficulties caused by low oil prices. Some issues are exposed because China failed to tighten control over the economic recoverability of reserves. Based on the new situation of oil prices, it comes up with the plans for China’s future oil exploration. They include investment necessary to secure additional reserves, aggressive momentum for strategic replacement to ensure a certain amount of preliminary exploration wells, emphasis on dynamic economic recoverability evaluation of proven reserves, and promotion of reform to lower production cost by means of technology.

摘要： 新增探明石油储量是一个笼统的概念，易产生歧义，造成误导。对此进行了解析，通过对近年来我国新增探明地质储量中经济可采储量、采收率变化所反映的储量品位下降、探明经济可采储量动用率不高、剩余可采储量和储产比降低等的分析，指出我国石油储量面临的严峻形势比2016 年石油产量的降低更应引起关注。回顾即使在年均 110 美元/bbl 的油价下我国仍有大量经济可采储量未能动用的事实，分析了低油价以来石油上游所展现的困难，暴露出我国对储量经济可采性掌控过于宽松所带来的问题。根据新的油价形势提出我国今后石油勘探的对策，具体包括：必须保障为新增储量进行的投资；保持战略接替的进攻态势，保障一定数量的预探井；对探明储量应强调经济可采性的动态评价；深化改革，依靠科技降低生产成本。

关键词: 石油储量, 采收率, 经济可采储量, 储产比, 未动用储量, 勘探对策

CLC Number:

Bai Zhenrui, Zhang Kang. Analysis of China’s Oil Reserves Situation and Plans for Additional Reserves[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2017, 36(2): 41-48.

白振瑞　张　抗. 我国石油储量形势解析及增储对策[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2017, 36(2): 41-48.

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