碳达峰碳中和背景下我国能源发展多情景研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 能源是支撑我国经济社会发展重要物质基础。化石能源是保障我国2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的中坚力量，可再生能源将是保障我国2050年全面建成社会主义现代化强国的主体能源。基于经济—能源—碳排放“S”形增长趋势与碳达峰碳中和目标约束，按照化石能源与非化石能源比例不同划分为4种情景预测了2060年中国能源需求趋势。在推荐情景中，未来40年（2021—2060年）我国预计需要累计消费煤炭877×10⁸t、石油201×10⁸t、天然气18.1×10¹²m³，分别为1949—2020年70余年累计消费量的0.9倍、1.6倍和7.2倍，能源安全保障责任依然重大。建议开展可再生能源环境承载能力调查，摸清未来发展潜力；制定碳达峰碳中和技术发展路线，开展关键领域技术攻关和应用；优选一批生态碳汇示范项目，建设一批二氧化碳捕集利用与封存示范区，形成可复制可推广的经验、技术和标准；处理好降碳减排与能源安全的关系，把握好能源替代节奏，保持能源供需平衡。

关键词: 碳达峰, 碳中和, 能源消费, 碳排放, 多情景, 发展路径

Abstract: Energy is an important material basis for maintenance of China’s economic and social development. Fossil energy is the mainstay for China to basically bring about socialist modernization by 2035. Renewable energy is the main energy for the country to become a socialist modernized power by 2050. Based on the S-shaped growth trend of economy-energy-carbon emission and the constraints from the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper defines four scenarios to predict China’s energy demand trend by 2060 according to the different proportions of fossil energy and non-fossil energy. In the recommended scenarios, it is predicted that China will cumulatively consume 877×10⁸t of coal, 201×10⁸t of oil and 18.1×10¹²m³ of natural gas in the next 40 years (2021-2060), respectively 0.9 times, 1.6 times and 7.2 times of the total consumptions in the previous more than 70 years between 1949 and 2020. Energy security remains as critical. It is suggested to carry out the renewable energy environmental carrying capacity to identify the future development potential and formulate the technological development path for carbon peak and carbon neutrality focusing on technological research and application in the key areas. It is necessary to optimize and select a number of natural resource carbon sequestration demonstration projects, construct some demonstration zones for carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage obtain the duplicable and extendable experiences,technologies and standards. The efforts should be also concentrated on reduction of carbon emission and energy security, the pace of replaceable energy and maintenance of the energy supply-demand balance.

中图分类号:

X322
F426.22

王陆新　王越　王永臻. 碳达峰碳中和背景下我国能源发展多情景研究[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2022, 41(1): 78-86.

Wang Luxin, Wang Yue, Wang Yongzhen. Multi-scenario Study of China’s Energy Development under Background of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2022, 41(1): 78-86.

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