碳达峰碳中和愿景下中国能源需求预测与转型发展趋势

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国是全球能源消费和碳排放第一大国，优化能源结构、加速能源绿色低碳发展是实现碳达峰、碳中和愿景的关键。综合分析既有研究成果，统筹考虑经济发展、能源安全和碳减排目标，设置了稳健型、积极型、激进型3种可实现碳中和的情景，对我国2021—2060年关键时间节点的能源需求与碳排放进行预测。展望各种类型能源发展趋势：煤炭消费中短期内稳中有降，未来要重点做好兜底保障；石油消费中短期内仍将持续增长，未来回归原料属性；天然气消费中长期内快速增长，未来成为可再生能源的“最佳伙伴”；非化石能源方面，核电要安全有序发展，水电要保持稳健有序开发，风能、太阳能中长期内将持续快速发展，以绿电和绿氢为载体共同推动可再生能源成为我国能源消费总量主体。

关键词: 碳达峰, 碳中和, 能源需求, 情景预测

Abstract: China is the world’s largest country in energy consumption and carbon emissions. Optimizing energy structure and accelerating the transition to the green and low-carbon energy system play a vital role in realizing the vision of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Comprehensive analysis of existing research results, taking into account economic development, energy security and carbon emission reduction goals, this paper sets up three scenarios that can achieve carbon neutrality, which are stable, active and radical respectively. Scenarios are used to forecast energy demand and carbon emissions at key time points in China from 2021 to 2060. Looking into the development trends for energy of various types, coal consumption will decline on the short-term and mid-term basis while maintaining stable. Coal will be used as the ultimate guarantee for China’s energy security in the future. Petroleum consumption will continue to grow in the short and middle terms. It will be used mainly as raw materials in the future. Natural gas consumption will grow rapidly in the middle and long terms and become the “best partner” of renewable energy in the future. In the non-fossil energy area, nuclear power should be developed in safety and order while hydraulic power should maintain healthy and orderly development. Wind and solar energy will continuously experience rapid development in the middle and long terms. Green power and green hydrogen will be used as carriers to help renewable energy become the backbone of China’s total energy consumption.

中图分类号:

F426.2

匡立春　邹才能　黄维和　于建宁　黄海霞. 碳达峰碳中和愿景下中国能源需求预测与转型发展趋势[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2022, 41(1): 9-17.

Kuang Lichun, Zou Caineng, Huang Weihe, Yu Jianning, Huang Haixia. China’s Energy Demand Projection and Energy Transition Trends under Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Situation[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2022, 41(1): 9-17.

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