后石油时代石油企业转型发展策略

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2018.03.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 石油消费量达到顶峰之后缓慢下降，替代能源快速发展，世界正在走向“后石油时代”。如何抓住石油工业发展的转折点、机遇期，实现转型升级、可持续发展是石油企业必须面对的紧迫问题。对此文章提出了一系列方略：强调必须从战略高度来认识，提高战略转型的觉悟和自觉性，认识能源发展演化的自然规律，走出路径依赖；在新的全球油气市场形势下，抓紧探索转型路径及国际能源合作新模式；利用大国关系调整，加快开发南海油气资源，使其搭上化石能源“末班车”；发展新技术新装备，改变落后机制，低成本快速开发丰富的低品位油气资源；利用技术、人才、资金、组织优势，加快进入新能源领域，开创新天地；缩小下游产业燃料产品比例，扩大高端化工材料产品比例，打破炼油产业过剩困局；有条件地实施产业跨界转型，走出资源型企业和资源型城市自然“死亡”的魔咒；作为国家能源安全的“压舱石”，应全力确保两亿吨原油产量不下跌。

关键词: 后石油时代, 能源转型, 国际合作模式, 低品位油气资源, 新能源, 高端化工材料, 能源安全

Abstract: Currently, petroleum consumption declines slowly after it reached the peak while replaceable energy is under rapid development. The world enters into the “post-petroleum era”. Petroleum enterprises are now pressed for taking advantage of the turning-point and opportunities of petroleum industrial development and making efforts for conversion and upgrading as well as sustainable development. A series of options have been proposed for those objectives. It is necessary to face this issue from the strategic angle, improve the awareness and motivation for strategic conversion, and identify the natural law of energy development and evolution. Against the new situation of global oil and gas market, petroleum enterprises should study the path for conversion and the new pattern for international energy cooperation, accelerate development of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea to make this region get on the “last bus” of fossil energy, develop new technology and equipment and change the outdated mechanism for cost-effective and rapid development of abundant low-graded oil and gas resources, and speed up new energy development by means of the advantages of technology, talent, fund and organizations. Meanwhile, they should reduce the proportion of downstream industrial fuel products, increase the proportion of high-end chemical material products break the deadlock of surplus refinery capacity, and bring about cross-disciplinary industrial conversion under certain conditions. As the mainstay of the national energy security, the petroleum industry should keep the country’s crude oil production no less than 200 million tons.

中图分类号:

胡文瑞. 后石油时代石油企业转型发展策略[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2018, 37(3): 1-11.

Hu Wenrui. Development Strategy for Conversion of Petroleum Enterprises in Post-petroleum Era[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2018, 37(3): 1-11.

参考文献

[1] 胡燕, 冯连勇, 王建良. 后石油时代已经来临[J]. 当代世界,2009(7):52-54. Hu Yan, Feng Lianyong, Wang Jianliang. Arrival of postpetroleum era[J].The Contemporary World,2009(7):52-54.
[2] 曹明倩, 舒小昀. 道格拉斯·诺斯经济史思想的演变 [J]. 淮阴师范学院学报( 哲学社会科学版),1995,17(2): 81-83. Cao Mingqian, Shu Xiaoyun. Theoretical evolution of Douglas North’s economic history[J].Journal of Huaiyin Teachers College (Social Sciences Edition),1995,17(2): 81-83.
[3] 徐振强, 王青红. 国际石油合作合同模式的特征及演进[J]. 国际经济合作,2003,11(1):50-52. Xu Zhenqiang, Wang Qinghong. Characteristics and evolution of international petroleum cooperation contract model[J].Journal of International Economic Cooperation,2003, 11(1):50-52.
[4] 胡滨. 中国与中亚能源合作研究[D]. 北京: 中国石油大学( 北京),2016. Hu Bin. Study of China-Central Asian energy cooperation[D]. Beijing: China University of Petroleum-Beijing,2016.
[5] 侯瑞宁.“981”开钻带来希望[J]. 中国石油石化,2012, 15(10):30-31. Hou Ruining. Hope from“981”drilling [J].China Petrochem, 2012,15(10):30-31.
[6] 张强, 吕福亮, 贺晓苏, 等. 南海近5 年油气勘探进展与启示[J]. 中国石油勘探,2018,23(1):54-61. Zhang Qiang, Lv Fuliang, He Xiaosu, et al. Progress and enlightenment of oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea in recent five years[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2018, 23(1): 54-61.
[7] 邹才能, 张国生, 杨智, 等. 非常规油气概念、特征、潜力及技术——兼论非常规油气地质学[J]. 石油勘探与开发,2013,40(4): 385-399. Zou Caineng, Zhang Guosheng, Yang Zhi, et al. Geological concepts, characteristics, resource potential and key techniques of unconventional hydrocarbon: On unconventional petroleum geology[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2013,40(4): 385-399.
[8] 吴奇, 朱天寿. 水平井水力喷砂分段压裂技术[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社,2013. Wu Qi, Zhu Tianshou. Horizontal well hydraulic jet stagedfracturing[M].Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press,2013.
[9] 胡庆明, 张宇. 中国石化“雄县模式”引领雄安新区建设新潮流[J]. 中国石化,2017,34(4):58-59. Hu Qingming, Zhang Yu. New construction upsurge of Xiongan new area based on Sinopec’s“Xiongxian Model”[J].Sinopec Monthly,2017,34(4):58-59.
[10] 2016 中国地热国际论坛在京召开[EB/OL].[2016-11 -18].http://www.xinhuanet.com/energy/2016-11/18/ c_1119937682.htm. Beijing hosts 2016 China Geothermal International Forum [EB/OL].[2016-11-18]. http://www.xinhuanet.com/energy/ 2016-11/18/c_1119937682.htm.
[11] 朱春凯. 我国成品油消费首现趋势性拐点[J]. 中国石化,2017,34(2):78. Zhu Chunkai. China sees a turn of trend in oil products consumption for the first time[J]. Sinopec Monthly, 2017,34(2):78.
[12] 什么样的化工新材料前景看好？[N].中国化工报,2016 -01-28(7). What new chemical material has a good prospect?[N]. China Chemical Industry News,2016-01-28(7).
[13] 庞培法. 玉门油田: 中国石油工业的摇篮[J]. 党史文汇,1999,15(11):13-16. Pang Peifa. Yumen Oilfield -Cradle of China’s petroleum industry[J].Corpus of Party History,1999,15(11):13-16.
[14] 张少华, 侯瑞瑞. 从单一到多元从制造到服务—— 鲁尔转型之路[J]. 城市发展研究,2012,19(2):42-47. Zhang Shaohua, Hou Ruirui. From single to diverse structure a nd f rom man ufacturing to services: th e transformation process of Ruhr[J].Urban Studies,2012, 19(2):42-47.
[15] 中国石油经济技术研究院.2016 年国内外油气行业发展报告[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社,2017. CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute. Report on Chinese and foreign oil and gas industrial development in 2016[M].Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press,2017.