关键词: 全球能源转型；“十五五”；中国能源结构；化石能源；新能源

Abstract: This article focuses on the background that the global energy situation is experiencing in-depth adjustment and driven by technological revolution. It makes a systematic analysis of the long-term global energy transition trend as well as China’s energy industrial development in the 15th Five-year Plan period. The study indicates that global energy transition is likely to have two evolution routes--“Balanced Transition Scenario” (BTS) and “Accelerated Net-zero Scenario” (ANS). According to the prediction by Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute Co. Ltd., BTS has a higher feasibility (the 2℃ temperature control goal). Against this background, the proportion of renewable energy will account for 51.8 percent by 2060. At the same time, the coal transition trend is gradual reduction of coal consumption and transformation into clean energy. The petroleum transition trend is de-carbonization and serves as petrochemical feedstocks while natural gas plays a role of transition energy to support the energy transformation process. Meanwhile, hydrogen, CCUS and new-type energy storage function as important supplements. In a short term, the American-European energy transition will be shifted to pullback in shrinkage from a high-toned leader. International petroleum companies will concentrate themselves again on fossil energy. China’s primary energy consumption growth is 3 percent in the 13th Five-year Plan period, 4 percent in the 14th Five-year Plan period, 2 percent in the 15th Five-year Plan period and less than 1 percent in the 16th Five-year Plan period. Of those, the 15th Five-year Plan period is the critical stage of China's energy industrial transition. In the time before the 15th Five-year Plan period, the energy self-sufficient rate was raised to 85 percent, mainly stimulated by the preferential policies, with the electric power consumption scenario expanded. During the 15th Five-year Plan period and the following time, replacement of high-carbon energy by low-carbon energy is internally driven by the industry, with the remarkable achievements made in replacement of coal by industrial gases and replacement of oil by transportation electricity. In addition, the oil refining capacities enters into a platform period (the additional capacity is between 3000×104t/a and 4000×104t/a, mainly from the large-scale integrated oil refining enterprises). The oil consumption of chemical industry becomes the key area of oil consumption (with an additional ethylene capacity of 2600× 104t/a and an additional PX capacity of 996×104t/a).

Key words: global energy transition; the 15th Five-year Plan; China’s energy structure; fossil energy; new energy