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14 March 2022, Volume 41 Issue 1 Previous Issue   

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Thinking of China’s Energy Development Strategy under Carbon Neutrality Goal Dai Houliang, Su Yinao, Liu Jizhen, Gu Dazhao, Kuang Lichun, Zou Caineng 2022, 41(1): 1-8.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.001 Abstract ( )   PDF (2010KB) ( )   Carbon neutrality has become a global consensus, and energy transition is the general trend. Under the carbon neutrality goal, China’s energy structure will undergo subversive changes, from the current fossil energy accounting for more than 80% to non-fossil energy accounting for more than 80%. The energy system will also undergo a revolutionary reshaping. This paper systematically evaluated the challenges faced by China’s energy transition, such as the emphasis on industrial structure, the partial coal energy structure, the low energy utilization efficiency, the short carbon neutrality window period, and the insufficient supply of key minerals for new energy. This paper also provides the policy implications that energy development should adhere to the policy of “based on national conditions, safe development, scientific innovation, and practical results”. Energy transformation should follow the concept of self-control, green and low-carbon, through the two-wheel drive of energy saving and efficiency improvement, and exert efforts on both sides of supply and consumption, which is divided into “three steps”: (1) reduce coal, control oil and increase gas, and vigorously develop new energy energy; (2) accelerate substitution of non-fossil energy; (3) a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system is expected to fully established. The system implements seven strategic projects of energy conservation, decarbonization, innovation, efficiency improvement, emergency response, support, and cooperation, which supports China to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as scheduled.

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China’s Energy Demand Projection and Energy Transition Trends under Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Situation Kuang Lichun, Zou Caineng, Huang Weihe, Yu Jianning, Huang Haixia 2022, 41(1): 9-17.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.002 Abstract ( )   PDF (3314KB) ( )   China is the world’s largest country in energy consumption and carbon emissions. Optimizing energy structure and accelerating the transition to the green and low-carbon energy system play a vital role in realizing the vision of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Comprehensive analysis of existing research results, taking into account economic development, energy security and carbon emission reduction goals, this paper sets up three scenarios that can achieve carbon neutrality, which are stable, active and radical respectively. Scenarios are used to forecast energy demand and carbon emissions at key time points in China from 2021 to 2060. Looking into the development trends for energy of various types, coal consumption will decline on the short-term and mid-term basis while maintaining stable. Coal will be used as the ultimate guarantee for China’s energy security in the future. Petroleum consumption will continue to grow in the short and middle terms. It will be used mainly as raw materials in the future. Natural gas consumption will grow rapidly in the middle and long terms and become the “best partner” of renewable energy in the future. In the non-fossil energy area, nuclear power should be developed in safety and order while hydraulic power should maintain healthy and orderly development. Wind and solar energy will continuously experience rapid development in the middle and long terms. Green power and green hydrogen will be used as carriers to help renewable energy become the backbone of China’s total energy consumption.

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Natural Gas Position and Role in Construction of Clean Low-carbon Energy System Ma Xinhua, Zhang Guosheng, Tang Hongjun, Liang Yingbo 2022, 41(1): 18-28.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.003 Abstract ( )   PDF (1532KB) ( )   Global natural gas consumption continues to grow rapidly. Natural gas is likely to become the largest energy by 2040. It is the main energy to promote green low-carbon transition after the typical European and American countries reach the carbon peak. International oil companies regarded natural gas business as an engine for energy transformation. Natural gas will play an important and irreplaceable role in construction of China’s clean energy system. Use of natural gas for replacement of coal is an important way for China to reach the carbon peak before 2030. Natural gas-fueled electricity generation is the best option for flexible peak adjustment of the electric power system. As the “best partner” for promotion of new energy development, natural gas will effectively back up China’s large-scale development of new energy. Based on analysis of experts and prediction from energy system modeling, China’s natural gas consumption will peak between 2035 and 2040 at about 6500×108m3and then decline slowly. The annual consumption is estimated to be about 5200×108m3in 2060. Industrial fuel and natural gas-fueled electricity generation are the main areas for growth. This paper comes up with four suggestions on construction of the tenacious clean, low-carbon and high-efficiency energy system. First of all, it is necessary to make full use of the “two resources and two markets” both inside and outside China, step up the efforts for natural gas exploration and development, consolidate the “stabilizer” position of domestic natural gas production, enhance various cooperation with the resource nations, and establish a number of channels for natural gas imports. Secondly, it is necessary to unify the efforts for integrated development of natural gas and renewable energy and establish the demonstration bases for integration of “gas, wind, solar and hydraulic” energy. Thirdly, the efforts should be strengthened for construction of the natural gas peak-adjusting and storing system, thus improving the peak-adjusting and emergency restoring capacity. Fourthly, it is necessary to promote innovative of the mechanism for the gas price, electricity price and carbon-related price system so as to improve the competitiveness of natural gas.

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Decarbonization Paths in China’s Key Sector under Goals of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Li Jianqing, Jiang Xuefeng, Su Yinao, Dai Jiaquan, Wang Lining, Peng Tianduo 2022, 41(1): 29-37.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.004 Abstract ( )   PDF (2863KB) ( )   The “3060” goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality marks a new stage of China’s energy development. Accelerating a series of transformations of the energy system holds the key to realization of the “dual carbon” goals. The decarbonization task is of great urgency in the sectors of industry, building, transportation an electric power generation. The results of “World and China Energy Outlook Model” show that China’s carbon emissions from the terminal energy-consuming sectors will peak in 2025 under the restrictions of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The peak time of the industrial and transportation sectors will be earlier than that of the building sector, with the annual carbon emission being less than 10×108t by 2060. Carbon emission from the electric power sector will peak in 2030, with negative emission brought about in 2060. The coordinating and promoting efforts for electrification of the terminal energy-consuming sector and low carbonization of the electric power sector hold the key to the nation’s low-carbon transition. The electrification rate of the terminal energy-consuming sector will reach 60 percent by 2060, while the proportion of power generation from non-fossil energy will approach 90 percent. China should accelerate industrial structural adjustment, develop the energy-saving recycling economy, substantially increase consumption of secondary energy like electric power and hydrogen energy in the terminal sector, accelerate construction of the new-type electric power system establish the incentive mechanism for new energy development and utilization, and ensure fulfillment of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals as scheduled.

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Influence from Carbon Neutrality Actions of Developed Countries on China Qiao Yingjun, Huang Haixia, Jiang Lingling 2022, 41(1): 38-49.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.005 Abstract ( )   PDF (2026KB) ( )   Carbon peak and carbon neutrality are both an important way for green transition and systematic and profound transformation of the economic community and an effective means for the humanity to make active response to climatic changes. The main management policies and development methods for carbon neutrality in developed countries include formulation of policies and laws, identification of the key issues related carbon neutrality, development of cyclic economy recovery, re-production and re-utilization of waste products in the industrial and civilian areas, perfection of carbon-trading market, and innovation of carbon financial products. This article elaborates the typical methods and emerging technologies adopted by developed countries in the four main areas of electric power, transportation, construction and industry. It also briefs about rapid development of hydrogen energy, CCUS and biomass energy in developed countries. The influence of carbon neutrality actions in developed countries on China is reflected in three areas. First of all, the active efforts should be made for formulation of the management policies and development methods which are adapted to China’s carbon neutrality goal, including formulation and perfection of China’s carbon neutrality goal, timetable and roadmap, while accelerating development of the recycling economy and perfecting carbon trading market. Secondly, the action plans should be made in classification and focused on the key areas, formulating the energy development route suitable for the Chinese conditions, improving the structural emission reduction in the transportation area, promoting the electrification process in the building area, and raising energy efficiency in the industrial area. Thirdly, the active efforts should be committed to development of the emerging technology and industry like hydrogen energy, CCUS, and biomass, helping bring about the carbon neutrality goal.

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Thinking and Suggestions on Construction of China’s Modern Energy System under Goals of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Li Xiaohua　Liu Jizhen　Wei Qifeng 2022, 41(1): 50-56.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.006 Abstract ( )   PDF (2120KB) ( )   This paper studies the predictions made by the domestic and foreign typical institutions on China’s total energy consumption and structure between 2030 and 2050 and analyzes the nation’s energy consumption development both at the present and in the future. Taking into account China’s high energy consumption and focusing on the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper comes up with the scientific contents of constructing the modern energy system, namely the modern energy system characterized in “green electricity serving as a mainstay”. Development of comprehensive energy is the pathway for the modern energy system. Focusing on the prominent issues of energy security and efficiency this paper proposes the key measures and pathways for construction of the modern energy system, such as formulating the decarbonization goals at various stage while taking a number of measures to improve energy-saving efficiency for the energy consumption side and constructing a multi-element clean energy supply system in the energy production side. Meanwhile, it is necessary to secure energy supply, accelerate high-quality development of energy, promote replacement of electric energy in some areas, raise the electrification level, expand application of the CCUS technology, create a new engine for negative carbon economy, and improve the carbon-collecting capacity of the ecological system.

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Strategic Thinking of the Path for Electric Power Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality on Basis of Energy-Economy-Environment Relations Lu Gang, Xu Shenzhi, Wang Peng 2022, 41(1): 57-62.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.007 Abstract ( )   PDF (2159KB) ( )   Realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is an extensive and profound economic and social revolution. As one of China’s main carbon-emitting sectors, the electric power industry will gradually become the critical decarbonization pivot in the shifting process of carbon emission from other industries. The path for electric power carbon peak and carbon neutrality is not only related to its own industrial development but also influences fulfillment of the goals nationwide. According to China's multiple strategic deployment, energy is in transition to a new electric power system while the economy is in transition to a new development paradigm and the environment is moving towards carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Significant adjustments in the energy, economic and environmental areas are simultaneously taking place. The study of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality path for electric power industry should be based on the nation’s whole situation. At this background, the “double-triangle” theoretical framework composed of “sustainable development triangle” and "impossible energy trinity" is proposed,and the changes in the relations of decarbonization in the electric power sector with the economic and environmental sectors are analyzed. A number of suggestions are put forward, such as leading the green development of the economy and society with the green development of energy, giving play to the innovation and leading role of the electric power industry, paying attention to the prevention of security risks, adopting the path of reducing emissions first slowly and then quickly, and scientifically allocating carbon budgets.

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Pathway and Strategy to Realize Carbon Neutrality Goals Wang Lining, Su Yinao, Lu Yachen, Gong Jinshuang, Dai Jiaquan, Li Ran 2022, 41(1): 63-70.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.008 Abstract ( )   PDF (2060KB) ( )   China strives to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emission before 2030 and bring about carbon neutrality before 2060. These efforts are of great significance to China in acceleration o f the economic and social development and green transition, realization of high-quality development, and building the nation into socialist modern power. To reach carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China should fully transform its energy system, rapidly reduce carbon emission related to the energy system after the carbon peak, accelerate reduction of coal consumption and increase of non-fossil energy substitutes, coordinate the efforts for the goals at various stages, and simultaneously promote electrification of end energy consumers and low-carbonization of the electric power sector. From the technological prospective, the carbon peak should be reached at high quality with sustainable economic and social development taken into account during the peak-reaching period (prior to 2030). The achievements from the carbon peak should be consolidated with distribution of the new-type low-carbon frontier technology during the platform period (2030-2035). It is necessary to accelerate decarbonizing pace and make a large-scale use of CCUS technology in the declining period (2035-2060). Meanwhile, the efforts should be strengthened for research and development of frontier and disruptive technology. This study proposes a number of countermeasures, such as establishing and perfecting the policy system of energy demand-side energy-saving and low-carbon transition, perfecting energy supply-side clean low-carbon guarantee mechanism, and establishing a more active policy environment for carbon utilization, thus providing theoretical references for further research on the carbon peak and carbon neutrality development strategy.

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Practice of International Carbon Market and Its Influence on Construction of China’s Carbon Market Wei Qifeng, Li Xiaohua, Liu Jizhen 2022, 41(1): 71-77.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.009 Abstract ( )   PDF (1939KB) ( )   This paper studies and analyzes construction and development of the world’s main carbon markets. The EU carbon market is the world’s earliest and largest one that has produced diversified investment entities and carbon financial derivatives. It also launched the innovated fund and modernized fund. The trading is very active on the market. Operation of the carbon market helped the EU countries significantly reduce greenhouse gas emission at the time of their high economic development and promoted structural transformation and energy transition of the economic entities within the EU areas. China now has eight pilot regional carbon trading markets. Online trading was formally launched at the national carbon emissions trading market in July, 2021. Operation of the pilot regional carbon markets was characterized in over-concentrated distribution of trading volumes, obvious fluctuations of trading prices, diversification of market investors, and rapid development of carbon financial products. However, the trading market also faces some problems, such as limited involvement of sectors, singular trading method, and formation and fluctuation of carbon prices. Based on the development experience in the carbon markets of EU and other countries, China should take into account the whole social interests to promote construction of carbon market, establish the social fund for carbon neutrality, adopt the progressive and stable market system, formulate the working mechanism for synergetic construction of the carbon market and an operational mechanism to guide the carbon market by means of prices, and step up international cooperation for carbon market and green low-carbon development.

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Multi-scenario Study of China’s Energy Development under Background of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Wang Luxin, Wang Yue, Wang Yongzhen 2022, 41(1): 78-86.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.010 Abstract ( )   PDF (2142KB) ( )   Energy is an important material basis for maintenance of China’s economic and social development. Fossil energy is the mainstay for China to basically bring about socialist modernization by 2035. Renewable energy is the main energy for the country to become a socialist modernized power by 2050. Based on the S-shaped growth trend of economy-energy-carbon emission and the constraints from the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper defines four scenarios to predict China’s energy demand trend by 2060 according to the different proportions of fossil energy and non-fossil energy. In the recommended scenarios, it is predicted that China will cumulatively consume 877×108t of coal, 201×108t of oil and 18.1×1012m3 of natural gas in the next 40 years (2021-2060), respectively 0.9 times, 1.6 times and 7.2 times of the total consumptions in the previous more than 70 years between 1949 and 2020. Energy security remains as critical. It is suggested to carry out the renewable energy environmental carrying capacity to identify the future development potential and formulate the technological development path for carbon peak and carbon neutrality focusing on technological research and application in the key areas. It is necessary to optimize and select a number of natural resource carbon sequestration demonstration projects, construct some demonstration zones for carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage obtain the duplicable and extendable experiences,technologies and standards. The efforts should be also concentrated on reduction of carbon emission and energy security, the pace of replaceable energy and maintenance of the energy supply-demand balance.

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Practice and Thinking of Digital Technology to Help Oil and Gas Enterprises with Their Low-carbon Development Wang Tongliang, Xu Peng, Hao Hongna 2022, 41(1): 87-91.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.011 Abstract ( )   PDF (1900KB) ( )   Digital technology is not only the effective way for the oil and gas industry to bring about high quality and cost-effectiveness but also holds the key to green and low-carbon development of the enterprises. From the six angles of oil and gas production, oil refining and chemicals, engineering technology, engineering construction, marketing and trade, and business management, this article systematically elaborates how digital technology helps the Chinese and foreign enterprises with their efforts to reduce carbon emission and practice carbon management. The effects for digital reduction of carbon emission are appearing in various links of oil and gas production. Against the background of China’s “dual carbon” target, the domestic oil and gas enterprises used digital technology for promotion of low-carbon development to keep their advantages of competition. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the study of the relations between digital technology and carbon emission, accelerate construction and application of the carbon emission data management system and launch the demonstration projects in this area.

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Thinking and Suggestions on High-quality Development of China’s Energy Industry under Goals of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Wang Mengshi, Jin Yiqiu, Zhang Hongchao, Xu Bin, Lu Shan 2022, 41(1): 92-99.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.012 Abstract ( )   PDF (2436KB) ( )   To cope with climatic changes and solve the issue of excessive carbon dioxide concentration worldwide, China will strive to fulfill the objective of reaching the carbon peak by 2030 and the carbon neutrality by 2060. Against the background of the goal, the high-quality development of China’s energy industry faces a series of challenges, such as the economic growth pressure, the difficulty in dramatic reduction of high-carbon energy consumption, and the immature technology for carbon replacement and carbon capture. However, the industry is also endowed with some opportunities, such as preferential policies and market dividends. The energy industry has created the conditions for its business development thanks to the demand for its own transformation and accumulation of traditional energy technology. It is proposed that the efforts should be unified for synergetic development of fossil energy and non-fossil energy at the next step to reasonably promote replacement of high-carbon energy with low-carbon energy. It is necessary to enhance intelligent energy construction and establish the energy production and consumption models under the new situation. The State should formulate more preferential policies to maximize release of the market invigoration.

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Contemplation on China’s High-quality Natural Gas Industrial Development on “Post Carbon Economic Era” Zheng Xianbin 2022, 41(1): 100-107.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2022.01.013 Abstract ( )   PDF (2193KB) ( )   The global identical view on environmental protection is allowing global energy development in transition to the “green” era of new energy and renewable energy from the “black” era of coal and petroleum. To fulfill the objective of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”, development and utilization of cleaner energy, continual optimization of energy structure and construction of the low-carbon, cleaner, cost-effective, safe and sustainable energy system are the future directions for China’s energy industry and the main path for the country’s natural gas industrial development. This article elaborates the opportunities and challenges for natural gas development towards the “post carbon economic era”. It points out that green development of natural gas industry calls for assurance of sustainable supply, perfection of the green market mechanism, development in reciprocation with new energy, terminal marketing carbon neutrality and optimization of distribution, perfection of the treatment mechanism for the natural gas consuming enterprises, and further reform of the relative financial taxation and prices. The efforts to study the path for multi-element, coordinated and reciprocal development of natural gas and non-fossil energy offered beneficial references for China to improve the environment for natural gas production, supply, storage, marketing and trade and realization of sustainable natural gas industrial development.