Abstract: The methods of evaluating the exploitation value of low-quality reserves are mainly traditional economic evaluation and real option theory, both of which have some weaknesses, especially on forecasting precisely the cash flow in the exploitation period. Nevertheless, the combination of fuzzy theory and real option can overcome this shortcoming, and the results of situation assessment are more close to reality. This paper established a brand new method of evaluating the exploitation value of low-quality reserves by applying fuzzy-real option theory on the case of low-quality reserves. The example of evaluating the exploitation value of YJ low-quality reserve from SL oilfield testified the efficiency and practicability of this method, which provided a new idea for the evaluation of low-quality reserves exploitation value.

Key words: energy economics, fuzzy-real option theory, exploitation value, low-quality reserves

摘要： 低品位储量开采价值评估主要有传统的经济评价方法和实物期权法,这两类方法都存在一定缺陷,特别是难以准确预测低品位储量开采期内的现金流,而以模糊理论和实物期权法相结合的模糊实物期权法则克服了上述缺陷,评估结果更加接近实际。文章以低品位储量为研究对象,利用模糊实物期权法建立了低品位储量开发价值评估新方法,并以此方法评估了SL油田YJ深层砂砾岩低品位储量的开采价值,结果表明该方法符合低品位储量开采价值评估的实际要求,为低品位储量开采价值评估提供了一种新的思路。

关键词: 能源经济, 模糊实物期权法, 开采价值, 低品位储量