Abstract: Evaluation of reserve is a key part in acquisition of overseas oil and gas assets. How to appraise the non-proven reserve is a key issue in the evaluation efforts. Non-proven reserve refers to the reserve other than proven reserve, including probable reserve, possible reserve and other reserve (such as the amount of resources), with the uncertainties at various levels. Based on analysis and summarization of the uncertainties of non-proven reserve and the evaluation problems, this article compares a large amount of results achieved in appraising non-proven reserve and makes a statistical study in this area, coming up with the dual-factor cash flow method and implied reserve value discount method to evaluate non-proven reserve. The calculation model for the equivalent proved factor and economic risk factor evaluation of non-proven reserve is adopted to partly solve the problem of inaccurate estimated value of non-proven reserve.

Key words: non-proven reserve; equivalent proved factor; economic risk factor; evaluation

摘要： 储量评估是收购海外油气资产时的一项核心的评估内容,而对未探明储量如何在价值评估中体现又是核心中的关键问题。未探明储量是指除探明储量以外的,包括概算储量和可能储量或以外的储量(如资源量等),具有不同级别的不确定性。在分析总结未探明储量的不确定性以及评价难点的基础上,通过对大量未探明储量进行评估结果的对比和统计研究,提出对未探明储量采用双系数现金流法和隐含单位储量折算价值法进行评估,并建立了采用折算探明系数和经济风险系数进行未探明储量价值的计算模型,部分解决了未探明储量难以准确估值的难题。

关键词: 未探明储量, 折算探明系数, 经济风险系数, 价值评估