煤层气产量预测分析决策支持系统在上下游一体化项目生产管理中的应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302X.2024.03.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过海量生产数据开展煤层气产量预测是上下游一体化大型项目管理中面临的挑战之一，针对该难题，中国石化集团国际石油勘探开发有限公司海外技术团队研发了煤层气产量预测分析决策支持系统。该系统以SQL、Spotfire、OFM及Enersight等主要应用软件为底层平台，通过二次开发及整合，搭建了数据整合、数据分析、预测转化及成果应用4个主要模块，以煤层气产量预测复杂性及经常出现的问题为切入点，开展煤层气产量预测综合分析、类比分析及递减分析，实现对产量预测的高效管理。该系统具有方便快捷、固定流程、分工明确、团队协作的特点。通过应用实例，展示了该系统针对海量生产数据，自上而下、由面到点、聚焦关键领域，高效筛查出产量预测的关键问题，并提出可行的修正方案，有效提升了煤层气产量预测精准度，为项目投资决策提供有力支持和保障。

关键词: 煤层气；产量预测；递减分析；上下游一体化；决策支持

Abstract: Using a large quantity of production for coal seam gas (CSG) production forecast is a challenge for management of the large-scale upstream and downstream integration projects. To solve this problem, the overseas technological team of Sinopec Oil and Gas Australia Pty Ltd has developed the analysis and decision-making support system of CSG production forecast. This system uses the main application software of SQL, Spotfire, OFM and Enersight as the bottom platform and constructs four main modules of data integration, data analysis, conversion of forecast and application of results by means of development and integration for the second time. Focusing on the complexity of CSG production forecast and related common problems, the system makes analysis of CSG production forecast in terms of general conditions, analogy and decline, thus bringing about high-efficiency management of production forecast. This system is easy and quick to operate and characterized for its solid process, clear division of work and teamwork. The application cases showed the system was designed for a tremendous quantity of data, focused on the key areas from top to bottom and surface to point, and effectively screened out the key problems in connection with production forecast. It also comes up with the feasible revision plan to effectively improve the CSG production forecast accuracy, providing helpful support and guarantee for making decisions on investment.

Key words: CSG; production forecast; analysis of decline; upstream and downstream integration; decision-making support

中图分类号:

TE32

李彦忱,刘杰,王箴. 煤层气产量预测分析决策支持系统在上下游一体化项目生产管理中的应用[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2024, 43(3): 104-111.

Li Yanchen, Liu Jie, Wang Zhen. Application of Analysis and Decision-making Support System of CSG Production Forecast in Production Management of Upstream and Downstream Integration Projects[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2024, 43(3): 104-111.

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