Abstract: Assessment of expected economic benefits of technology items is a major concern of all enterprises, but it is very difficult. This paper probes into the current state of expected economic benefits assessment of technology items both home and abroad, analyzes the key factors affecting the expected economic benefits assessment, and therefore puts forward systematic practical methods that have been applied to technology planning. The methods give prominence to the correlation between the characteristics of technology contribution and key factors of sci-tech progress and the growth of economic benefits. Corresponding standardized identification system is set up and it could objectively show the expected economic value of technology items.

Key words: sci-tech output, expected economic benefit, risk assessment

摘要： 科技项目预期经济效益评估是企业普遍关注的问题,但评估的难度很大。文章研究了国内外关于科技项目预期经济效益的评估现状,分析了影响科技项目预期经济效益产出的核心要素等有关问题,提出了一套实用的操作评估方法,并在科技规划研究中得到应用。该方法突出了科技贡献的特点和科技进步的核心要素与经济效益增长的关系,建立了相应的标准化判别体系,能够较为客观反映科技项目的预期经济价值。

关键词: 科技产出, 预期经济效益, 风险评价