关键词: 页岩油, 致密油, 非常规开发, 高效勘探, 战略接替

Abstract: US shale oil and gas development model has become the successful pattern for global unconventional oil and gas development and been brought under wide imitation. According to the analysis, a number of factors hold the key to its success, such as “horizontal well + volume fracturing” technology to improve the single-well production, continual cost-effectiveness by means of technological and managerial innovation, and raising fund at low cost. However, there are some bottlenecks in sale oil development, such as continuous high investment, high cost and rapid declining of the single-well production, and low production factor. Those are the critical problems which caused the difficulties for US shale oil production business under low oil prices. The low-grade and unconventional resources will be dominant in China’s newly proven reserves in the future and come under development in an unconventional way. Therefore, China will face the same bottlenecks as what the United States has faced in its shale oil development. It is proposed that China should accelerate reform of its exploration system and mechanism and encourage the efforts for expansion of exploration into the new basins and deepwater areas through the preferential policies, making preparations for substantial strategic replacement. Meanwhile, the oil companies should focus the efforts on the new zones and new fields in the key basins to bring about significant growth in oil production and reserves.