新形势下我国新能源行业发展特点与态势

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2023.02.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 当前全球能源危机凸显发展新能源的紧迫性，投资热度持续上升，“能源超级盆地”有望成为石油公司转型发展的新模式。我国以风电、光伏为主体的新能源成为电力新增装机主体，装机规模稳居全球首位，光伏、风电、新型储能、氢能等将持续加速增长势头，新能源电力消纳形势总体向好、局部紧张，相关技术进步加速迭代，各类市场主体积极布局新能源业务。结合中央经济工作会议精神和产业最新政策，提出2023年我国新能源行业将呈现加速规模化、加强集约化、全面市场化、场景多元化、竞争白热化的发展态势。在“双碳”目标引领下，我国“十四五”新能源发展进入快速规模化发展的新阶段。

关键词: 新能源；能源转型；风电；光伏；储能；氢能；发展态势

Abstract: The current global energy crisis highlights urgency of new energy development. With the enthusiasm for investment continually rising, the “super energy basin” is hopeful to become the new model of transformation and development for oil companies. China’s new energy mainly composed of wind power and photovoltaic power becomes the mainstay for newly-added installed capacity and ranks first in the world for the scale of installed units. There is an accelerated growth momentum for photovoltaic power, wind power, new-type stored energy and hydrogen energy. The situation of new energy electric power absorption is good as a whole but under pressure in some regions. Development of the related technology is accelerated in iteration. The main market participants of various kinds take an active part in distribution of new energy business. Based on the spirit of the central government’s economic work conference and the latest industrial policies, this paper concludes that China’s new energy industry will be in the development trends for accelerated conglomeration, enhanced integration, comprehensive marketing, multi-element situation and intensive competition in 2023. Under the guidance of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”, China’s new energy industry will enter into a new stage of rapid and large-scale development in the 14th Five-year Plan period.

Key words: new energy, energy transformation, wind power, photovoltaic power, stored energy, hydrogen energy, development trend

中图分类号:

F426.2
X24

袁榴艳　吴谋远　段沛一　周希唯　高慧　兰孟彤　刘月洋　逯昌伯. 新形势下我国新能源行业发展特点与态势[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2023, 42(2): 82-89.

Yuan Liuyan,Wu Mouyuan,Duan Peiyi,Zhou Xiwei,Gao Hui,Lan Mengtong,Liu Yueyang,Lu Changbo. Characteristics and Trend of China’s New Energy Industrial Development under New Situation[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2023, 42(2): 82-89.

参考文献

[1]　IEA. World Energy Investment 2022[EB/OL].[2022-12-28]. http://www.iea.org/t&c/.
[2]　Woodmac. Energy super basins: Where the renewable, CCS and upstream stars align[EB/OL]. [2022-12-12].https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/energy-super-basins-where-the-renewable-ccs-and-upstream-stars-align/.
[3]　国家能源局. 2022年全国电力工业统计数据[EB/OL].(2023-01-18)[2023-01-23]. http://www.nea.gov.cn/2023-01/18/c_1310691509.htm.
National Energy Bureau. Statistical figures of national electric power industry in 2022[EB/OL]. (2023-01-18)[2023-01-23]. http://www.nea.gov.cn/2023-01/18/c_1310691509.htm.
[4]　全国新能源消纳监测预警中心. 2022年三季度全国新能源电力消纳评估分析[EB/OL]. (2022-11-26)[2022-12-28].https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xmf_GU2CIVI_NxfGiV5BCw.
National New Energy Absorption Monitoring and Warning Center. Estimation and analysis of national new energy power absorption in third quarter of 2022[EB/OL]. (2022-11-26)[2022-12-28]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xmf_GU2CIVI_NxfGiV5BCw.
[5]　分布式光伏白皮书编委会. 2022中国分布式光伏行业发展白皮书[EB/OL].(2022-11-17)[2022-12-28]. http://https://www.xdyanbao.com/doc/9wgospw3gr.
Editorial Committee of White Paper of Distributed Photovoltaic Power. White paper of China’s distributed photovoltaic power industrial development in 2022[EB/OL].(2022-11-17)[2022-12-28]. http://https://www.xdyanbao.com/doc/9wgospw3gr.
[6]　盖锡咨询, 西部证券. 2022光伏组件招标大盘点[EB/OL].(2023-01-13)[2023-01-18]. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20230113A00GHU00.
GESSEY, Western Securities Co., Ltd. Overview on invitation of tenders for photovoltaic module in 2022[EB/OL]. (2023-01-13)[2023-01-18]. https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20230113A00GHU00. [7]　刘勇. 2022年储能产业回顾与2023年展望[EB/OL].(2023-01-14)[2023-01-18]. http://cesa.escn.com.cn/news/show-1538448.html.
Liu Yong. Review of stored energy industry in 2022 and outlook of the industry in 2023[EB/OL]. (2023-01-14)[2023-01-18]. http://cesa.escn.com.cn/news/show-1538448.html.
[8]　香橙会研究院.2022年前三季度可再生能源制氢项目分析[EB/OL].(2022-10-21)[2023-01-18]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AGPXaDJDHRZWJ6eWY9b9jQ.
The Research Institute of Orange Group. Analysis of renewable energy hydrogenation projects in the first three quarters of 2022[EB/OL]. (2022-10-21)[2023-01-18]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AGPXaDJDHRZWJ6eWY9b9jQ.
[9]　仲新源.隆基绿能的创新之路[EB/OL].(2022-11-01)[2023-01-16]. http://www.cnenergynews.cn/guangfu/2022/11/01/detail_20221101128030.
Zhong Xinyuan. Creation path of LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd.[EB/OL].(2022-11-01)[2023-01-16]. http://www.cnenergynews.cn/guangfu/2022/11/01/detail_20221101128030.
[10] 国家发展改革委, 国家能源局, 国家财政部, 等. “十四五”可再生能源规划[EB/OL].(2022-06-01)[2023-01-18]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb/202206/t20220601_1326719.html.
National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Bureau, Ministry of Finance, et al. The renewable energy program for the 14th Five-year Plan[EB/OL]. (2022-06-01)[2023-01-18]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb/202206/t20220601_1326719.html.
[11] 戴厚良, 苏义脑, 刘吉臻, 等. 碳中和目标下我国能源发展战略思考[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2022, 41(1): 1-8.
Dai Houliang, Su Yinao, Liu Jizhen, et al. Thinking of China’s energy development strategy under carbon neutrality goal[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2022, 41(1): 1-8.
[12] 李晓华, 刘吉臻, 魏琪峰. “双碳”目标下中国建设现代能源体系的思考与建议[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2022, 41(1): 50-56.
Li Xiaohua, Liu Jizhen, Wei Qifeng. Thinking and suggestions on construction of China’s modern energy system under goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2022, 41(1): 50-56.
[13] 内蒙古自治区能源局关于实施鄂尔多斯市乌审旗风光融合绿氢化工示范项目二期和乌兰察布10万吨年风光制氢一体化示范项目的通知[EB/OL].(2022-12-23)[202-01-16]. https://nyj.nmg.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkzl/fdzdgknr/tzgg_16482/tz_16483/202212/t20221223_2192806.html.
Circular of the Energy Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on the second stage of the wind-photovoltaic integrated green hydrogenation demonstration project in Wushen county, Ordos City and the 100,000-ton wind-photovoltaic hydrogenation integration project in Ulanchabu[EB/OL].(2022-12-23)[202-01-16]. https://nyj.nmg.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkzl/fdzdgknr/tzgg_16482/tz_16483/202212/t20221223_2192806.html.
[14] 内蒙古自治区能源局关于实施兴安盟京能煤化工可再生能源绿氢替代示范项目等风光制氢一体化示范项目的通知[EB/OL].(2023-01-04)[2023-01-18]. https://nyj.nmg.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkzl/fdzdgknr/tzgg_16482/tz_16483/202301/t20230104_2197474.html.
Circular of the Energy Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on the wind-photovoltaic hydrogenation integration demonstration projects including the Jingneng coal chemical renewable energy green hydrogen replacement demonstration project in Xing’an Prefecture[EB/OL].(2023-01-04)[2023-01-18]. https://nyj.nmg.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkzl/fdzdgknr/tzgg_16482/tz_16483/202301/t20230104_2197474.html.
[15] 内蒙古自治区能源局关于印发实施2022年度风光制氢一体化示范项目的通知[EB/OL]. (2022-09-29)[2023-01-18]. https://nyj.nmg.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkzl/fdzdgknr/tzgg_16482/tz_16483/202209/t20220929_2143302.html.
Circular of the Energy Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on the demonstration project of wind-photovoltaic hydrogenation integration in 2022[EB/OL]. (2022-09-29)[2023-01-18]. https://nyj.nmg.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkzl/fdzdgknr/tzgg_16482/tz_16483/202209/t20220929_2143302.html.
[16] 2021中国海洋石油有限公司环境、社会及管治（ESG）报告[EB/OL].[2023-01-16]. https://www.cnoocltd.com/attach/0/ 2204132335045252.pdf.
2021 ESG Report of CNOOC Ltd[EB/OL].[2023-01-16]. https://www.cnoocltd.com/attach/0/2204132335045252.pdf.
[17] 中石化与八家单位签署氢能产业链合作协议[EB/OL].(2022-07-14)[2023-01-13]. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1738322113546059936&wfr=spider&for=pc.
Sinopec signs hydrogen energy industrial chain cooperation agreements with eight companies[EB/OL]. (2022-07-14)[2023-01-13]. https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1738322113546059936&wfr=spider&for=pc.