中国油气勘探开发新进展与前景展望

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-302x.2023.01.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来，石油企业不断推进油气增储上产，加大投资力度，增加工作量，强化油气勘探和产能建设，取得超预期进展与成效。2019年以来，全国勘探新发现亿吨级油田和新增储量亿吨以上油田共7个，新发现和新增储量千亿立方米以上气田8个，新发现亿吨以上陆相页岩油田2个，实现了深层页岩气、深层煤层气勘探的战略性突破，落实了万亿立方米深层页岩气区，发现了大型浅层页岩气田；全国年均新增探明石油地质储量13.61×108t，年均新增常规天然气探明地质储量约8867×108m3；2022年，石油产量增至约2.05×108t，时隔6年重回2.0×108t以上，天然气产量增至约2178×108m3，超预期完成了油气增储上产阶段性目标任务。基于油气资源潜力分析，近中期，国内油气勘探开发将延续近4年增储上产发展态势，油气新增储量保持高位增长，石油产量在高位实现稳中有增，天然气产量实现较快增长；中长期看，油气探明储量有望较长时期保持高位增长，石油产量将在高位中逐步下行但有望长期稳定在2.0×108t以上，天然气将较长时间增产，2035年预计达到（3300~3500）×108m3，国内油气生产供应能力总体持续提升。要将前景展望变为现实，既需要企业积极应对挑战，保持加大油气勘探开发力度的战略定力，更需要国家层面的政策引导和支持，营造有利于油气增储上产的政策环境。

关键词: 石油天然气；勘探开发；增储上产；前景展望

Abstract: The petroleum enterprises have continually increased the oil and gas reserves and production in recent years. They enlarged investment, increased the working intensity and strengthened oil and gas exploration and productivity construction, thus making better-than-expected achievements and performance. There are seven oilfields with the newly-found and newly-added reserves exceeding 100 million tons nationwide since 2019, while there are eight gas fields with the newly-found and newly-added reserves exceeding 100 billion cubic meters. There are two newly-found onshore shale oilfields with the reserves exceeding 100 million tons. A strategic breakthrough has been made in exploration of deep-layer shale gas and deep-layer CBM, confirming the trillion-cubic-meter deep-layer shale gas zone and discovering the giant shallow-layer shale gas field. China’s annual average newly-added proven original oil in place reached 13.61×108t while the annual average newly-added proven conventional natural gas in place amounted to 8867×108m3. The oil production rose to about 2.05×108t in 2022, exceeding 2.0×108t again after six years, while the natural gas production grew to about 2178×108m3, better than the task set for increase of the reserves and production at the current stage. Based on analysis of the potential oil and gas resources, China will keep the trend of its domestic oil and gas exploration and development in the medium and near terms for increase of reserves and production in the next four years. The newly-additional oil and gas reserves are kept growing at a high level. The oil production is kept stable and growing at the high level while the natural gas production is fast on the rise. From the long- and medium-term point of view, the proven oil and gas reserves are expected to rise at a high level on a long-term basis. The oil production will gradually go down from the high level but it can hopefully kept stable at more than 2.0×108t for a long term. The natural gas production will be on the rise for a long period of time and expected to reach 3300-3500×108m3 by 2035. China’s ability for the domestic oil and gas production and supply will be generally on the rise. To turn the prospect into the reality, it is necessary for the enterprises to make active response to the challenges and keep their strategic strength to intensify oil and gas exploration and development. Meanwhile, it is also necessary for the State to guide and support by means of policies so as to create the policy environment favorable for increase of reserves and production.

Key words: oil and natural gas, exploration and development, increase of reserves and production, outlook

中图分类号:

F426.22
TE33

潘继平. 中国油气勘探开发新进展与前景展望[J]. 石油科技论坛, 2023, 42(1): 23-31.

Pan Jiping. New Progress and Outlook of China’s Oil and Gas Exploration and Development[J]. Petroleum Science and Technology Forum, 2023, 42(1): 23-31.

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